In September 2024, China exported approximately 3.86GW of photovoltaic modules to the Asia-Pacific market, reflecting a 17% decrease from 4.63GW in August and a 45% decline from 6.98GW in September last year. During the third quarter of 2024, China’s total photovoltaic module exports to the Asia-Pacific region amounted to 13.65GW, a 13% decrease from 15.74GW in the second quarter and an 8% decrease compared to 14.8GW in the same period last year. However, from January to September 2024, cumulative exports to the Asia-Pacific market reached 54.13GW, a significant 62% increase from 33.39GW in the same period last year.

Key Market Insights: India’s Role in Asia-Pacific Solar Energy System Growth

India remains the leading market for Chinese photovoltaic module exports in the Asia-Pacific region. In September 2024, India imported about 1.1GW of Chinese photovoltaic modules, a 6% decrease from the 1.17GW imported in August. From January to September 2024, India’s total import volume reached approximately 14.11GW, reinforcing the country’s growing demand for solar energy systems.

Despite the demand, the Indian market faces several challenges, including port congestion and limited shipping space, which have resulted in longer delivery cycles for photovoltaic systems. On the policy front, India’s government introduced an incentive mechanism for local distribution companies under the “Prime Minister’s Photovoltaic Scheme (PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana)” in July 2024. This initiative is expected to boost local participation in the solar energy system market, driving further demand for photovoltaic modules. However, as local production of solar components in India expands, the country’s reliance on foreign photovoltaic components may gradually decrease in the coming years.

Pakistan’s Decline in Photovoltaic Module Imports

Pakistan, once a major importer of Chinese photovoltaic modules, experienced a sharp decline in September 2024. The country imported only 0.29GW of photovoltaic modules in September, a significant 73% decrease from 1.07GW in August. From January to September 2024, Pakistan imported a total of 14.6GW of Chinese photovoltaic components. This dramatic drop in imports is primarily due to the off-season in the local market and increased inventory levels at local dealers, which have reduced the need for new imports.

Given Pakistan’s reduced demand for photovoltaic systems, it is expected that the volume of Chinese photovoltaic module imports will continue to decline in the fourth quarter of 2024. This shift underscores the dynamic nature of the Asia-Pacific solar energy system market and the impact of local market cycles on import trends.

Forecasting the Solar Energy System Market in the Asia-Pacific Region
As the Asia-Pacific region continues to develop its solar energy infrastructure, the demand for photovoltaic modules remains strong, particularly in countries like India. However, fluctuations in imports and the evolving market dynamics in countries like Pakistan highlight the challenges and opportunities within the solar energy system market.

With increasing local production capabilities in various Asia-Pacific countries, there is potential for further market shifts in the coming years. As these nations continue to build and expand their solar energy systems, the demand for imported photovoltaic modules could experience both growth and contraction depending on local policies, production capacity, and economic factors.